The Cincinnati Reds are facing a challenging period, with a recent slump in performance casting a shadow over their season. The team's struggles are multifaceted, affecting both their pitching and offensive capabilities. With a 3-7 record in their last ten games, the Reds find themselves in last place in the NL Central, a stark contrast to their earlier season form.
One key player, Hunter Greene, has been pivotal in the team's success. Greene, a former No. 2 overall pick, underwent surgery in March to remove bone chips from his throwing elbow, which has kept him sidelined. His return is imminent, with a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League scheduled for June 18th. Manager Terry Francona has indicated that Greene will be back before the All-Star break, a development that could significantly boost the team's performance.
Greene's impact on the rotation cannot be overstated. In 2024-2025, he posted a 2.76 ERA in 45 starts, striking out 29.2% of opposing hitters and holding them to a .596 OPS. This performance solidified his status as a dominant force in the Majors, provided he could stay healthy. However, the 2026 season has been a different story, with Greene's health issues preventing him from showcasing his full potential.
In the meantime, the Reds have relied on other players to fill the void. Chase Burns, another former No. 2 overall pick, has stepped up admirably. With a 2.14 ERA and a 29.6% strikeout rate in 75 2/3 innings, Burns is making a strong case for himself. His performance is particularly notable, as it ranks fourth-best among qualified starters and third-best in strikeout rate, just ahead of Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner.
However, the team's pitching struggles are not limited to Burns. Andrew Abbott, the team's only other qualified starter, has a 4.10 ERA, which, while decent, is not inspiring. The remaining rotation spots are occupied by Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, and Rhett Lowder, with their performances ranging from just okay to below replacement level. Greene's return will be a significant boost, as it will shift these players down the pecking order, potentially improving the overall rotation.
The bullpen is also in flux, with a few key players on the mend. Pierce Johnson and Emilio Pagán are expected to return soon, with Johnson set to throw live batting practice on Monday and Pagán on Friday. Johnson, who came to the Reds on a one-year deal, had a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings before his recent injury. His 21.7% strikeout rate is his lowest since 2018, and a 4.01 SIERA suggests he will take on a middle reliever role once he returns.
Pagán, out since May 6th with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, is expected to require more time. He told reporters he expected to be out for four to eight weeks, and with Wednesday marking six weeks since his IL placement, an early July return seems plausible. Pagán's struggles in 14 innings pre-injury are a concern, but his 2.88 ERA and 32 saves last year make him a valuable asset as the closer when he returns.
The offense has also faced challenges, with catcher Jose Trevino returning from a 10-day injured list stint due to a left hamstring strain. Trevino's absence has been felt, with only 32 plate appearances around two IL stints, including a thoracic spine strain in April. P.J. Higgins, who filled in during Trevino's absence, recorded four hits in 16 at-bats, a performance that is not likely to inspire confidence.
In minor league news, utilityman Sam Haggerty has joined the organization on a minor league deal. Haggerty was released by the Rangers a week ago after they designated him for assignment. With a 12 wRC+ in 47 plate appearances this year, and an average performance last year, Haggerty is a reasonable, no-risk depth pickup. His switch-hitting ability and 119 career wRC+ against southpaws make him a valuable asset for the team.
The Reds' recent struggles are a cause for concern, but the return of key players like Greene and the potential contributions of players like Haggerty offer a glimmer of hope. The team's ability to bounce back and reclaim their place in the NL Central will depend on their ability to address their current challenges and capitalize on the opportunities presented by these returning players.
